NFL Draft 2009:
Warnings from History about Picking a Quarterback as #1 Overall
Because their needs range all over the field especially on the defensive side where they ranked dead last in the league for two years running, rumors abound about what the Detroit Lions will do with the top pick of the 2009 NFL Draft tomorrow.
According to Profootballtalk.com, there have been strong indications that Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford will be the Lions’ pick, maybe even already a done deal.
While speculation will likely continue until the first pick is actually announced, there is plenty of historical evidence that taking a quarterback as the number one pick is risky business.
Oh sure the Cowboys did okay with Troy Aikman and the Colts with Peyton Manning but while they all have dazzled with promise, more than a few have been plagued by injuries, played out marginal careers for teams that did not draft them or have simply been unable to cut it in the NFL because their talent proved inadequate to compete at that level.
$40 million. That is the figure being thrown around about what it will take to make a deal with Tom Condon, Stafford’s agent. That is a lot of car money, in a lousy economy, to invest in a rookie that will be asked to turn around the NFL’s first 0-16 team. The recent memory of a failed QB in Joey Harrington is still fresh on fan’s minds.
The jury is still out on the Raiders’ JaMarcus Russell (#1 overall-2007) and the 49ers’ Alexis Smith (#1 overall-2005) has had to take a huge pay cut just for the opportunity to compete for a roster spot. The San Diego Chargers saw their first overall pick (Eli Manning-2004) go on to win a Super Bowl for the New York Giants.
The 1999 draft offered a seemingly bountiful array of quarterbacks led by Tim Couch, taken first by the expansion Cleveland Browns, but only two of those guys are still in the league: Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb and Detroit’s Daunte Culpepper. Long gone are Akili Smith, picked third by Cincinnati and UCLA’s Cade McNown, chosen 12th by Chicago.
Undoubtedly the sport’s most crucial position, quarterback offers the highest profile and as mentioned, crazy money, but there is no escaping the pressure to produce. There are ways to lighten the load, including the sit-and-learn from a vet routine, like McNabb, but for most the money often demands a return on investment right away.
Is Detroit willing to try and convert a bulldog into a lion?
The question for Detroit ownership is Stafford worth $30-40 million when their needs go so far beyond a QB
Go for it! Stafford has the mental and physical tools to take Detroit out of the abyss
Unfortunately there are far more Joey Harrington’s than Peyton Mannings so go with the lineman Jason Smith.
Don’t do it Detroit! Can’t make a Lion out of a Bulldog.
The Lions went ahead and did it. Only time will tell.
The question is as for many young quarterbacks is the following. Can the Deroit offensive line protect him so he is not running for his life? With today’s defensive ends running 40’s in the 4.5 range the QB has to be able to read and react quickly before he gets hammered. Sure he will get his share of interceptions but will he be able to sustain a drive and score points.