The Kentucky Derby: 2009 Preview

They are a pack of animals bred to run, thundering down the track, nostrils flaring, hair flying and necks bobbing- and I’m talking about the horses – not the brave young souls hovering over them trying to motivate a half-ton of dynamite on four feet to finish first to the passionate shouts of a frenzied crowd. Yes, the Kentucky Derby is one of the most exciting traditions in sport. Unlike a tennis player at Wimbledon or a heavyweight boxer seeking the crown, this storied event has an age restriction as only 3-year-old thoroughbreds can run in the Derby, thus each only has one chance at it in his lifetime. Many dream of the roses, but only one horse will wear them out of the thousands born each year. With the 135^th Run for the Roses taking place Saturday at Churchill Downs, here’s a look at the initial leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

First there is the track- Churchill Downs is a 1 1/4-mile race for 3-year-olds on the dirt track, composed of 75 percent sand, 20 percent silt, and 5 percent clay. The race begins at the top of the stretch, which gives jockeys time to move their mounts in to save ground before the first turn. However, since a full field of 20 starters are expected, horses that start on the outside still risk losing valuable ground around the turns, but the risks also extend to contestants on the inside who will face the danger of getting squeezed as the pack bunches up. At over 1200 feet the stretch is long which tends to favor runners that come from off the pace.

In stark comparison to last year, with huge standout like Big Brown, this year’s Kentucky Derby – and the Triple Crown in general – is up for grabs.

While a host of factors such as weather, speed/pace, form, pedigree and the human elements of jockey and trainer play a key role in determining a potential winner, let’s take a look at the horses favored to make a race of it.

I Want Revenge

*(3/1)

Having back-to-back wins in the Gotham Stakes and the Wood Memorial, a particularly impressive win after being left at the gate and breaking through the crowd, I Want Revenge has momentum on its side. Joe Talamo, a 19-year old Cajun jockey, is making his first Derby start, but this race has a history of teen successes such as Steve Cauthen and Ronnie Franklin.

 Pioneer of the Nile

(9/2)

 Though this colt has never raced on dirt, reports are that it has looked brilliant in workouts at Churchill Downs this week.  Five victories in eight starts, Pioneer of the Nile recently has made great strides in the ability to focus from gate to wire. Winner of four straight graded stakes in Southern California, capped by the prestigious Santa Anita Derby, despite his current workouts, the question lingers- can Pioneer of the Nile transfer his fine form from the synthetic racing surfaces of California to Kentucky dirt?  

Friesan Fire

(5/1)

 The first horse since Dixieland Heat in 1993 to sweep the prep races at the Fair Grounds – the LeComte (Gr. 3), the Risen Star (Gr. 3) and the Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2) the main question for Friesan Fire is if trainer Larry Jones’ strategy of no competition for over six weeks will pay off.

Friesan Fire hasn’t raced since his triumph on March 14 in the slop at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby, but if the rain keeps falling at Churchill Downs, that experience could be advantageous come Derby day.

Chocolate Candy

(20/1)

CC enters this race with four wins in nine starts, including two stakes wins this year, both at Golden Gate, before shipping down the coast to finish second in the Santa Anita Derby. Chocolate Candy’s strength, as is I Want Revenge, is the ability to close from off the pace and can stalk. Where he fails is in the speed figures, proven in being a runner-up to Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1). Like other entries who have done well on the west coast, the biggest question mark is the lack of experience on dirt tracks.

Dunkirk

(4/1)

While he has high mark marks for speed and pace, Dunkirk certainly has talent but not a lot of experience. From great breeding and bought at a healthy $3.7 million at the Keeneland September Sale, Dunkirk did not race at 2 (if he captures the Derby, he’ll be the first horse to do so without racing at 2 since Apollo in 1882) but captured his first two starts at 3 handily at Gulfstream Park.

Coming off a 5 week layoff and lacking a stakes win this year, Dunkirk will have to rely on sheer talent.

Musket Man

(20/1)  

Unlike Dunkirk, Musket Man does not come from fine breeding, but what he does do is win. In six races he has won five (four this year), including the Illinois Derby and added a third.

General Quarters

(20/1)

Destined to be a crowd favorite as a victor in the Blue Grass Stakes and the fact that the colt’s trainer and owner is a retired Louisville school principal who made the Derby with the only horse he trains. With 11 starts, he also is the most experienced colt in the field.

Desert Party

(15/1)

Starting his career in the U.S. winning the Sanford Stakes (Gr. 2) at Saratoga in his second start, Desert Party is owned by Godolphin, the racing operation founded by Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. Desert Party is also among the entries arriving in peak form.

Regal Ransom

(30/1)

With superb early speed, this colt is looking even better with the ailments to his counterpart Quality Road who won the Gr. 1 Florida Derby – and developed quarter cracks in his hooves.

*odds are subject to change

Who is your pick to win it all?

For complete coverage check out:

Kentucky Derby.com 

NBC Sports.com 

Bloodhorse.com

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