Andy Schleck from Saxo Bank
The 2009 Tour de France is far from over. Today’s stage 16 didn’t play out as you would expect. Saxo Bank tried to attack Alberto Contador with no success. In the biggest surprise of the day, Lance Armstrong was able to bridge the 30+ second gap Saxo Bank opened on the weaker riders. Equally surprising was the failure of Cadel Evans to keep up on this long rather shallow climb. It took Carlos Sastre a while, but he was finally able to catch the lead group, which descended like there was no tomorrow, ending Cadel Evans’ chance for a podium finish.
The next mountain stage has more and steeper climbs than today, and should encourage attacks by teams Saxo Bank in support of Andy Schleck and Garmin – Slipstream in support of Bradley Wiggins. Carlos Sastre will remain in the mix, but Cadel Evans has lost any hope of a high finish and needs to try for a stage win to salvage his pride.
The upcoming flat long time trial should suit the strength of Lance Armstrong. The final mountain stage at Mont Ventoux is a much longer climb than Stage 15 and should suit Carlos Sastre and Lance Armstrong, as well as the Schleck brothers, much more than the current leader Alberto Contador. On Mont Ventoux look for multiple attacks and re-attacks, not just one attack and a sprint to the finish as we saw in stage 15.
Team Astana has lost a lot of depth with the withdrawal of Levi Leipheimer. Astana has a lot of good climbers, but in the past, it was only Levi who was at Contador’s side in the big mountain stages of the 2007 tour. Lance is a great climber, but unless he finds a way to match Contador’s accelerations, Contador will be hung out with the Schleck brothers, Sastre and Wiggins launching multiple attacks on him, wearing him down on the final climb of Mont Ventoux, and riding to victory.
There are still a number of riders who can win, and the fast technical descents in the next stage could mean bad luck for any rider, and time gained for those who are strong climbers and strong descenders. Today’s fall and retirement from the tour of Jens Voigt underscores this point, and will be a big loss for team Saxo and Andy Schleck. Tomorrow’s climbs and the time trial will be the next major sorting, and Mont Ventoux will be decisive. With less than 4 minutes on Lance Armstrong, Bradley Wiggins, Andy Schleck and Carlos Sastre, Alberto is anything but safe.
Alot of racing left so any number of things can happen, good or bad to the leading contenders. Certainly an exciting final week indeed.