The 2010 Tour de France is being touted as a rivalry between 7-time champion Lance Armstrong and 2-time champion Alberto Contador. Both men are great riders, but the tactics to the podium will differ greatly. It is almost a classic tortoise vs. hare story.
Lance is at the end of his career and his days of dominating the Time Trials and Mountain stages are behind him. His 4th place showing in the Prologue is more a testimate to the Prologue only being 5 miles long than a statement that Armstrong is back at the top of his game. Contador on the other hand, falling 5 seconds behind Armstrong has little meaning, as Contador’s youth will allow him to get stronger as the race continues, and the final time trial’s greater length should favor Contador.
Armstrong will have to settle for not losing time on the flat stages (even better look for a opportunity to split the peleton on the cobbles or in crosswinds) and use his many years of experience and team tactics to keep him in the hunt on the mountain stages. Contador on the other hand is on a new team (still named Astana, but none of the riders from past tours are with him, they all went to team Radio Shack with Armstrong). Contador is definitely the strongest climber and the best time trialer of the GC contenders, but can the team around him support a GC conteneder for 3 weeks.? The power behind team Astana is Alexander Vinokourov, not Contador, and Vinokourov has never shown himself to be the most supportive teammate. If Team Astana does not support Contador, and the Schleck brothers, Cadell Evans and others continually attack Contador in the mountains, Lance’s just being there might be enough to give Armstrong an edge going into the final competitive stage.
The final competitive stage is only a time trial and is set for the last Saturday of the race. This should be the decisive matchup between those still in the hunt for the Yellow Jersey. The much longer distance should favor Contador, but energy management and team tactics in a 3,000+ km race might give Armstrong an edge.
In the end, if Contador rides a smart race and doesn’t let the pressure get to him, he should easily win. But one bad move on Contador’s part and the door might be open for the now patient and steady Armstrong.
