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The first three stages through the Pyrenees haven’t yielded the clear leader most of us were hoping for. Instead, the 31 second lead held by Andy Schleck has been erased, and Alberto Contador now holds an 8 second lead. Since my last post, both Denis Menchov (2 minutes back) and Samuel Sanchez (2 minutes 13 seconds back) have been able to close the gap on the leaders.

Today was a sad day in the history of the Tour de France. Bad luck and age caught up with Lance Armstrong today to leave him 13′26″ off the lead. Compounding his trouble on the cobbles in stage 3, Lance fell 3 times today and at age 38, he just didn’t have the gas to rejoin the leaders. Regardless of the falls, Lance really didn’t have what it took to keep pace on the climb as teams Sky and Astana held a fast tempo up the high mountains. The other contenders, Contador, Evans, Schleck and Menchov were able to stay together. Notably, Lance’s teammate Levi Leipheimer was able to stay with the leaders, and leave team Radio Shack with a shot at the podium.

On a team with more than one strong rider, the team must work together to fend off the other teams, but if the strong riders start competing, the whole team loses. In the case of Astana, it is pretty clear that the team director had told the team to work together to get the yellow jersey from Cancellara, and have it naturally fall to the highest place Astana rider, Lance Armstrong. However, the best laid plans go awry when a team member goes out for himself.

Expect to see team Astana set a blistering pace to destroy the other teams and climbers. The Schleck brothers will try to repeat their feats from 2008, but team Astana will prove too much. If Lance at age 37 can keep up with Contador, the yellow jersey will be his, but that will be no easy task.